House prices in France outside of the capital fell by 1.6% in the first quarter of the year, according to the notaires.

By contrast, with house prices in many areas of France now beyond the reach of many buyers, and investors searching for a safe haven, the price of apartments rose by 1.9%.

Overall, however, the market appears to be slowing down, with 31 departments of France (one third of the country) showing a fall in house prices over the past year, while only 12 showed an increase in prices.

Unfortunately for all of us, however, the notaires do not identify the departments, so we are really not much the wiser about what is happening.

The lack of detail does suggest a certain lack of confidence by the notaires in their figures, particularly outside of Paris and the large metropolitan areas.

So the best we are given are figures for the major towns and cities over the past year, only four of which show a fall in prices over this period – Caen (-1.6%), Saint Etienne (-5.3%), Metz (-11.4%), Nancy (-0.3%), Montpellier (-1.5%).

French Estate Agents

A similar lack of geographic detail is also evident in recent property market reports from FNAIM, the national association of estate agents.

In contrast to the notaires, the estate agents report that, on average, house prices outside of Paris rose by 4% in the first quarter, a trend they say continued into the second quarter, when prices rose by an average of 2.7%.

Once again, however, there is a worrying absence of information on the movement in prices in different parts of the country.

Where the notaires and agents are agreed is that the market is becoming more ‘heterogeneous’, but if this is the case, then publication of the average national movement in prices is of very limited value.

An expression of agreement on the existence of numerous housing markets across the country may also simply be no more than a euphemism for saying they do not really know what is happening to prices.

There are, in particular, enormous difficulties in measuring the movement in the price of country properties, where the diversity of the stock means that comparable sales are not easy to find.

So perhaps the most significant information to come out of these market reviews is that both the notaires and the agents report that sales are slowing down (particularly for new homes), and they consider that prices will stabilise or fall slightly for the remainder of the year.

Xerfi Study

The slowdown is a view also shared by economic consultants Xerfi, who have carried out a major study into the outlook for the residential property market up to 2015.

They consider that prices will stabilise between now and 2012, and that further price growth can be expected from then up to 2015, mainly due to demographic factors.

Like the notaires and estate agents, they also consider that there will be significant regional disparities, with the Paris and the Ile de France continuing to power ahead of most other parts of the country.

Other regions with good growth prospects are Languedoc-Roussillon, Midi-Pyrénées, Brittany and the Atlantic coast. By contrast, the market outlook is more delicate in Champagne-Ardenne and Franche-Comté.