House prices rose in all regions of France last year say the Notaires de France, and the British are still buying.

The largest increase in house prices occurred in Corsica, where they rose by over 18%.

By contrast, there were more modest rises of under 3% in Brittany, Alsace and Languedoc Roussillon, with the latter recording the lowest average increase of 1.7%.

An analysis by each region is given on the following table.

As other articles in this issue of the newsletter demonstrate, a more detailed analysis of the market by department shows there were considerable variations within each region (including falls in some departments), so some prudence should be taken in the interpretation of these figures.

The analysis from the notaires is also generally more bullish than that of FNAIM, the French estate agents association, who in their own recent report for 2010 painted a picture of rather lower general increases, and even falls in prices in the regions of Lower Normandy, Lorraine, Limousin and Languedoc-Roussillon.

The disparity in the figures between these two main commentators is merely going to reinforce demands for a root and branch change to the collection and assessment of French house price statistics.

The only point on which both the agents and notaires seem to be agreed is that the number of sales rose substantially last year by around 30% from 2009, to reach 782,000, near the historically high levels that occurred in the middle of the last decade.

Outside of the Ile de France, the largest increases in sales by department occurred in Calvados, Moselle, Haut Vienne, Haut Loire, Loire Atlantique and the Gers. By contrast, in the Sarthe sales actually fell over that from 2009.

British Buyers

British buyers continue by far to remain the largest group of international buyers, accounting for 17% of all international sales, although down from an average of around 25% over the past ten years.

They are followed by the Italians and Belgians each on 10% of sales, a figure that has remained relatively stable since 2000.

Outside of Paris, the most popular departments for international buyers were the Creuse, Dordogne, Lot, Gers, Alpes-Maritimes and Haute-Savoie. In these departments they accounted for between 10% and 20% of all sales.

Outlook

There is a degree of prudence by the notaires in their forecast for 2011.

They consider that many uncertainties surround the market this year, notably over future interest rates, the impact of the presidential elections in 2012, the economy, and possible changes in capital gains tax on property.

Given these uncertainties they consider sales in the year are likely to fall from those of 2010, but that in popular areas prices will continue to increase at an average of around 5% over the year. In the main towns and cities, the increases are likely to be considerably over this figure.

Nevertheless, like the estate agents before them, they consider there will be large variations in the performance of the market, and that in some areas, a fall in prices is likely.

The slowing of the market is a view shared by other commentators on the French property market, including FNAIM, Crédit Agricole, Century 21 and HSBC.

All the talk is now of a 'soft landing' for 2011.